Will LTE Signal the End of GSM?

At the end of last year NTT DoCoMo launched their LTE network. They had announced back in May, at the LTE World Summit that they have a roadmap in place to migrate remaining customers on thier 2G network to 3G and LTE and plan to swich off the 2G network within 2 years. So we're looking at a switch off date of May 2012. This isn't as agressive and anmitious as it seems, as DoCoMo has an unusually high proportion of its subscrbers already on 3G. Coupled with the fact that DoCoMo uses the rather niche PDC technology for its 2G network, you can understand why they want to part ways with it.

So why aren't other mobile operators in mature markets as keen as NTT DoCoMo is on this strategy? Surely the cost of running a 2G, 3G and LTE network is not sustainable given declining revenues? The first reason is that no operator will switch of their GSM network until there is complete ubiquity of at least 3G. Secondly, GSM provides an excellent voice service and in markets such as the UK where customer bases are polarised either towards being very smartphone savy or just wanting a very basic mobile phone to make phone calls. In this case why should UK opeators go to the effort of migrating everyone to 3G/LTE when 65% of their revenue still comes from voice and the GSM network is so reliable? The third reason is that even though the difference in QoS between EGDE and 3G is considerable, EDGE is still good enough for basic web browsing etc (remember the first iPhone?)

If we start to see 99% coverage requirements for 3G as they have in France, then this will make the case for operators to commence a roadmap for 2G switch off. This however will not happen overnight. Coverage requirements such as the example in France can only really come in to place after the regulators have re-farmed the 900MHz band for UMTS or the 800MHz digital dividend band for LTE - or as in France's case, both.

Operators seem to be resigned to the fact that for now they will have to operator 3 different networks (4 if they operate a series of WiFi hotspots!). In this situation optimising traffic-flows across different networks and having the right policies in place for managing capacity effectively is essential.

If DoCoMo is successful then operators may think again, but for now is seems that GSM still has a long life ahead.

DoCoMo LTE Launch Date Finalised

Japanese carrier NTT DoCoMo will launch commercial LTE service in December of next year, skipping the interim upgrade to HSPA+ which many operators have decided to do and delay the launch of LTE to when the devices are ready and when there is some real feedback from operators that have trialed and deployed LTE.

NTT DoCoMo President and CEO Ryuji Yamada made the announcement yesterday at the GSMA Mobile Asia Congress. Yamada said that it would be most efficient to go straight to LTE. DoCoMo have invested heavily in LTE to make sure that it works for them and HSPA+ would just be a distraction especially as the amount of data traffic on its network has been doubling every year according to Yamada. HSPA+ in that case will only be a very short term solution.

The LTE network is expected to considerably boost the operator's data revenues, which should comprise more than half its overall sales by 2011. DoCoMo will spend $3.4 billion on the deployment, initiating the buildout in high-traffic areas, where it will overlay its existing 3G network with LTE. The operator will first offer its LTE service on data cards and LTE-capable handsets are slated for 2011.

DoCoMo plans to turn off its 2G network in 2012, so needs to migrate all of its customers onto 3G and LTE before then. This again is a different strategy to other operatrors that see 2G as being around for at least another 10 years.

KDDI Finally Makes Its LTE Schedule Clear...

KDDI announced that it would start deploying LTE and is looking to complete the deploymenr by 2012. The contract was awarded to Motorola and NEC a few days ago.

The deal includes base stations from Japan's NEC and although the announcement gave no idea of the breakdown of the orders, but most analysts seem to think that Motorola will get the lion's share of the order.

KDDI's network is a full two years behind that of NTT DoCoMo. The news lifted KDDI's stock, which had previously not made its LTE schedule clear as it is also a major investor in Japanese mobile WiMAX with UQ Communication which has an aggressive WIMAX rollout schedule. The operator has set itself a target of more than 90% population coverage nationwide by the end of March 2010. By that time, UQ says it will have 1,161 cities covered through 38,000 base stations, which includes 19,000 femtocells.

KDDI will deploy its LTE network in both 1.5GHz and 800MHz bands and will conduct LTE trials in mid 2010.

At the LTE World Summit in London in Novmber 2008, the KDDI speaker was very unclear about its strategy when he said that they would be deploying both LTE and WiMAX networks and left the audience feeling very confused. KDDI is clearly not putting all its eggs in the LTE basket, but why the need for the two networks, no one is sure either.

Is HSPA+ a Distraction or a Real Stepping Stone on the Path to LTE?

HSPA+ is gaining momentum as a stepping stone on the path to LTE. The Japanese operator eMobile has just announced that it has launched HSPA+ services in the country, using kit supplied by Huawei.

eMobile is promising mobile data speeds up to 21.6Mbps on the downlink and covers cities such as Hokkaido, Sendai, Niigata, Hiroshima, Fukuoka and Nagasaki. The service provider will offer internet access, streaming media and VoIP and will connect the end user with a Huawei supplied data card.

So why have certain operators opted for HSPA+ instead of migrating directly to LTE? NTT DoCoMo was the first operator in the world to launch W-CDMA and the network is not due an upgrade. W-CDMA was deployed by Softback in 2003 and Other operators such as Softbank deployed in 2003 and eMobile only launched its 3G service in 2007. These operators cannot justify a major overhaul of the network to the shareholders, where as DoCoMo can say that that they have made a good return on their investment and its time to reinvest for the future with LTE.

eMobile customers have reported congestion problems in some locations at peak times and the problems are only going to get worse. HSPA+ works out as a cheaper option for operator that needs to upgrade its network in order to cope with the ever increasing amount of traffic. LTE will just have to wait for its turn in these sorts of cases.

NTT DoCoMo plans to launch LTE in December 2010

The Japanese service will initially be aimed at PC users, with DoCoMo offering card-type terminals for laptops, said Ryuji Yamada, president and CEO of NTT DoCoMo at a Tokyo news conference. It will be expanded to include handset terminals from 2011, he said. Those terminals will be dual-mode devices that use LTE networks where available and fall back to 3G networks to provide nationwide coverage. LTE's introduction is also expected to reduce the per-byte cost of data communications.

By 2014 the operator plans to provide LTE service to 50 percent of Japan from around 20,000 base stations. DoCoMo plans to invest between ¥300 billion and ¥400 billion (US$3.2 billion to $4.2 billion) during the first five years of the roll-out, said Yamada.

NTT DoCoMo was the first carrier in the world to launch a commercial 3G wireless service based on WCDMA but based on its LTE roll-out it will likely be beaten this time around by carriers in other countries.

Verizon Wireless is likely to be the first operator to launch LTE in the world. European operators are also getting behind the technology with several tests under way or planned on the continent. TeliaSonera has said it will build a commercial LTE network in Stockholm, Sweden, and in Oslo, Norway.

NTT DoCoMo will be speaking at the LTE Asia conference in Hong Kong on the 8th and 9th of September. For more information and a full line up of speakers, visit www.lteconference.com/asia

LTE Asia Operator Attendees Set to be From Across the Region

Delegates confirmed as attendees for the conference include the following companies:

Hutchison HK, Shanghai Mobile Communications Company, CSL, PCCW, GSM Kazakhstan, Chunghwa Telecom, Kcell, Vodafone, CTM, ViBO, SmartTone-Vodafone, Taiwan Mobile, WiTribe Asia, Orange Labs, PTCL, Tata Communications, Telkomsel, Maxis, Telkom CDMA, Aircel, Datacom, Packet One Networks, PT Bakrie Telecom

Not to mention the high level speakers that will be talking about their vision for LTE in the Asia-Pacific region including NTT DoCoMo, Starhub, Dialog Telecom, Softbank Mobile, eMobile, KDDI and regulators from Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan.

There are still a limited number of free passes available for operators to claim. For more information or to download the conference brochure you can visit www.lteconference.com/asia

LTE World Summit Interviews Now Available!

In depth interviews with key speakers at the recent LTE World Summit in Berlin are available to watch online.


Interviewees include: Ed Candy, Former CTO, 3, Franz Seiser, Head of Core Network Architecture, T-Mobile, Klaus-Jurgen Krath, EVP, Radio Networks Engineering & Quality, T-Mobile, Hans Erik Karsten, Vice President, Network Technologies, Telenor, Marc Fossier, Former CTO, France Telecom Group, Takehiro Nakamura, Director, Radio Access Network Development Department, NTT DoCoMo and many more.

There is also an archive of older interviews available on the www.lteconference.com site.