Is the LTE Performance Gain Simply Due to Wider Frequency Bands?

There have been various LTE trials going ahead in 2009 and of course the surprise LTE network launch by TeliaSonera who have estimated LTE user data rates to be in the range of 20-80 Mbps. Similar figures have been promoted in other operator trials.

Quite often operators and system vendors refer to the achievable peak rates, ranging from 100 Mbps to as high as 250 Mbps. However, in cases where LTE is deployed in high density, metropolitian areas, these peak data rates are unlikely to be achieved.

Omnitele has just announced that it expects actual data rates to be a lot less than the figues above. Through analysing LTE performance in technical studies and simulations using Omnitele’s state-of-the-art network planning tool analysis on the performance gain of LTE compared to HSPA technology comes mainly from the wider frequency band (up to 20MHz compared to 5 MHz for UMTS). Switching from CDMA to OFDM also has an effect, as does MIMO according to Omnitele. However, significant expectations being put on the performance of MIMO and yet the most critical element of performance which remains under the control of the designer is the antenna, The 3GPP is still proposing how to define requirements for MIMO antennas and it is a pretty complex topic with apparently little consensus developing so far.

Actual LTE user data rates are highly dependent on radio conditions and number of users sharing network resources. Most of the first commercial LTE deployments are said to utilise 20MHz bandwidth and 2x2 MIMO antenna schemes. When breaking down the performance of LTE features in different channel conditions and simulating them in a realistic metropolitan network environment, Omnitele estimated the achievable average LTE user data rates to be in the range of 15-25 Mbps per 20MHz frequency bandwidth.

LTE outperforms the current baseline HSDPA in terms of data rates by a factor of ten and HSPA+ technologies by a factor of 3-4. But it will take more than improved radio performance to really get the best out of LTE.

Will Operators Subsidise Consumer Electronic Devices to Help Foster LTE Subscriptions?

Thomas Noren, Head of Product Line LTE at Ericsson’s Networks business, predicted that the cellular industry will one day manage 50 billion connections across the globe, with each person owning a variety of connected devices.

Although, HSPA has already enabled laptops and video cameras to have wireless connectivity, this will continue with LTE. Operators will be looking to connect numerous devices and machines to other machines or to human beings in a different way to what we’ve seen so far.

Migrating existing customers over to LTE as soon a the network is switched on will be difficult and this will have to be a gradual process. Mobile phones, computer and consumer electronic devices including notebooks, netbooks, ultra-mobile PCs, gaming devices, cameras, and PMPs will incorporate embedded LTE connectivity. LTE and multi-mode ICs and devices are scheduled to become available in 2009. The ecosystem is clearly coming together in time for the first networks due to go live in 2010.

With mobile handset sales in decline, mobile operators are using already their subsidies to push sales of other consumer electronics devices such as netbooks and e-book readers to help foster mobile broadband subscriptions. But will this trend continue with LTE devices. Operators have already indicated that they are not keen on subsidising devices in the future and are hoping that consumer electronics manufacturers will take on some of this cost, although this is not likely as the IPR costs for consumer electronics comapnies is already very high.

Thomas Noren will be participating on the executive keynote panel at the LTE Asia conference in Hong Kong on the 8th and 9th of September.

Chunghwa to Deploy LTE in 2011

Chunghwa Telecom an operator based in Taiwan is planning to build an LTE network in 2011, it emerged today through a report from DigiTimes.

Chunghwa Mobile has been working with a total of seven taiwanese companies to with an aim to develop related LTE technology and products suited to Taiwan’s market. HTC, Asustek Computer, HT mMobile, Coiler, the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), the Institute for Information Industry (III), and the Telecommunication Laboratories of Chunghwa Telecom (CHT) have all just joined the 3GPP, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

HSPA subscriber numbers in Taiwan currently stand at at 1.56 million with Chunghwa Telecom's own HSPA subscriber base at 880,000 people according to WCIS. Mobile broadband subscriptions are set to grow to 19.94 million by 2014, making mobile broadband a major growth driver for telecoms companies on the island.

GSMA "LTE Is On Track"

The GSMA says its latest numbers show that the HSPA/LTE technology track is well established and, by implication, that WiMAX is dying.

There's a well-documented trend for consumer technology adoption indicating that each new iteration tends to swing into widespread use significantly faster than the one before - it's as if humans are becoming earlier and earlier adoptors as a sort of evolutionary adaptation. So it's no surprise that the GSMA sees HSPA adoption exhibiting the same characteristics. The organisation says it expects there will be 150 million connections by the end of this summer. GSMA has this morning unleashed a veritable tsunami of statistics including:

• There are more than 300 networks across 127 countries
• 1500 HSPA-enabled devices readily available on the market
• AsiaPac accounts for almost 50 million live HSPA connections today (and will have over 56 million by this September)
• EMEA HSPA connections will pass the 50 million mark any day now
• The US currently has almost 32 million HSPA connections (with the number expected to rise to nearly 37 million by this September)
• The Americas (excluding the US and Canada) will have just over four million connections by the end of September

According to Dan Warren, Director of Technology at the GSMA, it's all about scale and coverage. Once a communications technology like this hits a certain inflection point, there's just no stopping it. "WiMAX will have a small foothold in isolated regions," he says, "but the point is that HSPA covers large geographic areas and you can move from one place to another and still have your device work."And then there's the advantages of sheer manufacturing scale. HSPA and then LTE network equipment and gadgetry is going to be in mass production and that creates its own inevitability - once massive scale is reached there is no way an alternative networking technology, more or less trying to do the same thing, can ever compete. When it comes to LTE, Warren says he expects there to be 87 million users by 2013, with the adoption rate doubling the year after, and so, according to the law of accelerating adoption, that technology will grow even faster than HSPA has done.

Informa's LTE Asia and LTE Americas conferences will be focusing on the ROI of investing in LTE at an early stage before economies of scale brings down the cost of LTE equipment. Should operators really wait to deploy LTE when consumers are expected to adopt LTE quicker than they did HSPA?